米尔斯海默：这次伊朗的反击会和上次很不同

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合集 · 约翰·米尔斯海默 (239)

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Sophie009 2024-08-09

米教授也想不出以色列不听老美意见不断挑衅伊朗的原因[笑哭]

♥ 97 ↩ 5

夏洛克春喜 2024-08-09

以前说过，其实以色列才是被困一方。以色列的处境和被萨拉丁围困驱逐的十字军一样，身处在阿拉伯世界的包围中。阿拉伯世界的和平发展会成为以色列越来越沉重牢固的枷锁。以色列本来也可以和鲍德温那样在胜利的基础上以相对的宗教平等政策以外交经济优势立国。然而却选择了和宗教狂热，军事掠夺，最终被击败驱逐的十字军一样的道路。以色列不过是再次重蹈历史的覆辙。[doge]

♥ 91 ↩ 9

超级天然大坑 2024-08-09

确实没搞懂，为什么还有人不相信伊朗会打？[doge] 第一，如果伊朗只想稍微“惩戒”，随便应付几发，小以拦截后，这一波对峙就结束了… 第二，如果是伊朗不想打，为什么俄要不断运防空装备去伊朗，然后还要劝解伊朗不要伤害平民…

♥ 80 ↩ 38

蹬鹰化龙 2024-08-09

打仗不是玩游戏，准备至少十天半个月，准备越久烈度越高[吃瓜]

♥ 56 ↩ 1

吟游诗人迭戈 2024-08-10

这次伊朗的反击和任何国家任何军队的任何一次反击都很不同——口头反击，坚决不打。

♥ 19 ↩ 2

无脑红脖子 2024-08-09

主持人这口条是真溜

♥ 11 ↩ 2

huailande 2024-08-09

以色列想要的和平是触手可及的，前后的那么多协议，履行任何一个都足以保证以色列的安全，奇怪的是半个多世纪以来，以色列的实际表现几乎是反着来的，拉宾看似能与阿拉法特打成协议，但结果是他们都挂了。当合理的推测不能解释现实的时候，那“阴谋论”或许可以，即以色列一直被某个势力控制或利用，而这个势力只是把犹太教或犹太人挂在表面而已，这个势力大概率出自“东欧流民”，只有他们才能既不用在乎什么巴勒斯坦人，也不用在乎什么犹太人，用最直接的解释就是现在的以色列是被“东欧流民”控制的，最为讽刺的是，这些人似乎都戴着小圆帽，“东欧流民”里面有难民，谁又能保证里面没有纳粹呢？

♥ 8 ↩ 4

仲蒜苗 2024-08-09

用理性去分析以恐怕已经不合适了

♥ 4

账号已注销 2024-08-09

总结如下：一、Professor Mayor Shimer joins the show to discuss the potential for conflict between Iran and Israel. He believes that Iran will launch a much more forceful attack this time， and that Israel will likely strike back. 00:39 - Professor Mayor Shimer joins the show and discusses the recent Middle East crisis. 02:04 - Iranians have made it clear that they will not work with the Americans to limit the attack this time. 03:21 - Iran will probably launch a much more forceful attack this time and Israel will probably respond in kind. 二、The Israelis will retaliate， which could lead to an escalation ladder. The Americans are caught in the middle， committed to helping defend Israel. The Iranians and Israelis look like they're heading for a major conflict. We need to work hard in the middle.

♥ 4

十字路口的骑士 2024-08-09

up能不能出点关于三战的视频。看金灿荣教授的说法，有很多严肃的专家最近在讨论这个问题。

♥ 4 ↩ 16

portillo777 2024-08-11

他不说，我都忘了伊朗被人家搞了[笑哭]，一点声音也没了

♥ 3

雨林777 2024-08-09

伊朗根本就不敢真正的动手，最多来个象征性的报复，不痒不痛，双方都下得了台

♥ 3 ↩ 4

Carpe_DiemKarl 2024-08-09

@AI视频小助理

♥ 3

家庭工作爱好三不误 2024-08-10

您老每次都没说错，可哪个政客愿意听呢[笑哭]

♥ 2

账号已注销 2024-08-09

03:36 - Israelis will likely retaliate， escalation ladder could happen 04:28 - Americans caught in the middle， committed to defending Israel 06:24 - Hezbollah has 150，000-200，000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel 三、Interview with an Israeli and a Palestinian on the current situation in the Middle East， including the possibility of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the Iranian nuclear program. 07:08 - Why are the Israelis interested in going down this road from a strategic point of view? It just makes no sense. 08:24 - Iran wants to attack a country that has nuclear weapons， but Iran does not. This is because of deterrence. 10:31 - If you posit a situation， Iran will have very powerful incentives to get nuclear weapons. 四、以色列和伊朗之间的紧张关系，以及可能的核战争危险。作者认为，美国应该努力使双方保持冷静，否则后果将不堪设想。 10:43 - 核武器危机将导致极端危险的局势

♥ 2

bili_21778274390 2024-08-10

伊朗会不会在奥运结束当天袭击啊给马总个面子[吃瓜]

♥ 1

账号已注销 2024-08-09

11:21 - 伊朗和以色列之间的导弹战争将成为冲突的一个危险维度 13:21 - 美国将努力防止局势升级，以免造成大量伤亡和经济损失五、This could result in a conflict between Hezbollah in Israel， which could cause high civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure in both countries. It is not in Israel's interest to see a war happen， but there may be some hypotheses as to why they may be willing to go down that path. 14:16 - Hezbollah in Israel could result in huge numbers of civilian casualties in both Lebanon and Israel and enormous damage to the infrastructure. 15:20 - The bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus was a restrained response that showed the Iranians would not allow their embassy to be bombed without a response. 16:44 - Iranians are interested in deterring the Israelis and they believe that the best way to do this is to make it clear that if Israel does anything provocative like this， the costs will be very great. --本内容由AI视频小助理生成

♥ 1

编少扯点蛋 2024-08-09

[吃瓜]

♥ 1

啥人者武松也 2024-08-09

伊朗需要的是核保护[doge]

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